In market year (MY) 2025/26, total citrus production in Mexico is expected to decrease slightly by 0.4 percent from the previous year, driven primarily by a decrease in orange production. MY 2024/25 fresh orange production is estimated down on heavy rains caused by tropical storms Raymond and Priscilla that hit main producing regions in October 2025 postponing harvesting in some areas until early MY 2025/26. Environmental factors, such as prolonged drought, extreme heat, and erratic rainfall, are expected to hamper production. Orange juice production is subsequently also projected down slightly on lower available orange supplies and inconsistent fruit quality. Exports of fresh citrus fruit are projected to maintain a relatively moderate upward trend for fresh lemons/limes and a marginal decrease for fresh oranges.
Executive Summary:
MY 2025/26 total production in Mexico of fresh oranges, lemons, limes, and grapefruit is expected to decrease by 0.4 percent from the previous year as Mexican citrus production remains challenged by adverse environmental conditions such as prolonged drought and high temperatures affecting many of Mexico’s key producing areas.
Mexico’s total domestic consumption is up an average 4 percent across all fresh citrus, driven by a 6 percent increase in fresh lemon/lime consumption. However, consumer purchasing behavior continues to be primarily constrained by the economic environment. While included in the Mexican Department of Agriculture’s official basic food basket, or “canasta basica,” fresh citrus and other fruit products are generally not prioritized as staple food items by medium and low-income Mexican consumers.
Fresh citrus fruit exports are expected to continue to rise due to a moderate increase in lemon/lime exports offsetting declining orange exports. MY 2025/26 fresh citrus exports are projected to be above MY 2024/25 exports due to higher available exportable lemon/lime supplies. Mexico’s imports of fresh citrus fruit are minimal and largely unchanged year to year. In 2024, according to Agri-food and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP), total area planted with citrus fruits covered in this report (oranges, lemons, limes, and grapefruit) reached over 604,000 hectares, a 1.2 percent increase from the previous year. Oranges make up 58 percent of total citrus planted area, lemons 38 percent, and grapefruit 3.6 percent. This distribution has remained consistent for the last 11 years.
Planted Area
For MY 2025/26 (November/October), Post projects orange planted area at 356,800 hectares (ha), a 0.97 percent increase from the previous year. Over the last couple of years, Mexico’s largest orange growing regions have been affected by prolonged drought, and recently in October, tropical storm Priscilla caused severe flooding in the state of Veracruz. Most of the damage took place in orange groves close to riverbanks. Additionally, HLB (Huanglongbing), also known
as yellow dragon disease, and other pests continue to reduce yields in Veracruz and other major
producing states.
In general, farmers face higher operational costs, driven by increasing prices of fertilizer, electricity, and fuel. To address these challenges, large-scale growers are exploring improved post-harvest strategies as well as implementing sustainable solutions such as the use of bio-stimulant products and good agroecological practices. Across the
country, for the last five years constant weather fluctuations like extreme heat, limited water availability, and intense downpours in short periods of time have hampered crop production and fruit quality, especially in terms of size and juice content.
For MY 2024/25, large growers producing under irrigation systems expect their fruit to be well-sized and with more juice content but anticipate a decline in their external (cosmetic) appearance, making the fruit less attractive for the retail market. Consequently, growers often delay cutting/harvesting the fruit produced in irrigated orchards to secure a better market price with improved product quality.
Based on available official data, Mexico’s MY 2024/25 orange planted area is estimated to be 353,342 hectares, a marginal decrease from 353,609 ha in MY 2023/24. In 2024, the majority of Mexico’s total orange planted area was concentrated in the states of Veracruz (48.6 percent), Puebla (10 percent), Tamaulipas (10 percent), San Luis Potosi (9 percent), and Nuevo Leon (7 percent). Other states combined accounted for the remaining 15 percent.
Production
Despite a moderate increase in planted area, Post forecasts orangeproduction for MY 2025/26 will decrease 2.8 percent from the previous year at 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) on adverse weather. In October 2025, tropical storms Raymond and Priscilla damaged many orange orchards near riverbanks in major producing areas in Veracruz and interrupted end-of-marketing year harvesting activities. Although the storms caused major fruit loss in those affected areas, many fruits remained unharvested on the trees and were unable to be harvested until November-December 2025 and thus will be counted towards MY 2025/26 production.
Mexico’s MY 2024/25 orange production is estimated at 4.83 MMT based on available official data. This represents a decrease of 2.1 percent from the previous year’s estimated production of 4.96 MMT. Over past few years, production has been unstable due mainly to adverse environmental conditions including prolonged droughts, high temperatures, and erratic rainfall. In the current year, growers anticipate lower output and average external (aesthetic) fruit quality, although with good flavor and juice content. According to estimates from both Post and USDA official data for MY 2024/25, Mexico holds a firm fourth position in global orange production, accounting for 11 percent of the worldwide total, behind Brazil, China, and the European Union.
Using available official data, Post estimates Mexico’s national orange yield for MY 2024/25 at 14.17 metric tons per hectare (MT/ha), a decrease of 2.2 percent from the previous year as a result of the unprecedented heavy rains in October. Post anticipates that the environmental conditions mentioned will continue to negatively affect planting, harvesting, and overall citrus yields in MY 2025/26.
The state of Veracruz largely determines the trajectory of Mexico’s orange crop, as it accounts for almost half of the total national planted area for oranges. According to SIAP official data, orange production in MY 2024/25 is 2.1 percent lower than the 4.94 MMT crop in MY 2023/24. The decrease in volume is mainly attributable to a 23.2 percent decrease in production in Tamaulipas, the second largest orange producing state, although the loss was offset by a 1.1 percent increase in production in Veracruz and a 9.8 percent volume increase in Puebla, the third largest producer in CY 2024. In CY 2024, according to available official data, Nuevo Leon ranks fifth with 5 percent of total national orange production. Based on Mexican official available data, in CY 2024, national orange production exceeded 4.83 MMT. The Valencia orange continues to be the predominant variety with over 95 percent of national orange production followed by the Hamlin variety with 4 percent. The Marrs, Navel, and Criolla varieties account for the remaining 1 percent. The ratio among orange varieties has remained stable for many years. Based on expectations among orange growers/packers regarding current higher fresh orange retail market prices versus prices offered for fresh oranges by juice processors, the price difference could potentially lower available fresh orange inputs for the juice industry in MY 2025/26.
Phytosanitary Issues Huanglongbing (HLB) or yellow dragon is a phytosanitary hazard to citrus growers and present in Mexico’s major citrus producing areas. To mitigate the impact of HLB, Mexico’s federal and state governments continue to work together to implement measures such as biological control and integrated pest management, in addition to training and promoting good agricultural practices.
Consumption
Post forecasts Mexico’s domestic fresh orange consumption at 2.7 MMT in MY 2025/26, a moderate 3 percent increase from the previous marketing year. This increase is largely due to the marketing year shift of many MY 2024/25 fruits that were delayed in being harvested due to tropical storms in October 2025. The uptick is also due to fewer fruits being destined for processing into juice as prices for fresh oranges currently outpace those offered by the juice industry, creating higher available fresh fruit supplies for consumers. However, this expected increase in consumption is likely to be curbed by economic factors that continue to affect consumers’ purchasing power. According to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) in September 2025, the cost of basic food basket products increased by 3.6 percent year-over-year in rural areas, slightly below the overall annual inflation rate (3.8 percent), whereas in urban areas the increase in food basic basket products reached 4.7 percent. The rising price of food continues impacting consumers’ purchasing decisions, making them more selective when buying food items such as fruits. Oranges, for example are included in the basic food basket “Canasta Básica,” but they are prioritized lower by lower/middle class families than animal proteins such as poultry and eggs. Fresh orange consumption in MY 2024/25 is estimated at 2.61 MMT.
Trade
For MY 2025/26, Post forecasts Mexico’s fresh orange exports at 49,000 MT, a decrease of 9 percent versus 54,000 MT estimated for MY 2024/25 due to lower available exportable fruit and SPS-related logistical challenges for producers in Nuevo Leon. Nuevo Leon’s orange production for CY 2024 is up 7 percent from CY 2023 according to available official data; however, exporters in this region face costly logistical burdens with the cessation of APHIS’ roving seasonal inspection services in the high production area of Montemorelos a few years ago. Although Nuevo Leon borders the United States, fruit packers in Nuevo Leon must now send their shipments down south around 180 miles to San Luis Potosi to have their fruits irradiated at an APHIS-approved facility before sending them back north for export to United States, per information on SENASICA’s website Moreover, according to producers, fresh orange prices in Mexico are lucrative enough that many suppliers are choosing to sell to the local market over exporting. Consequently, Post estimates a
drop in the volume of fresh orange exports from Mexico to the United States in MY 2025/26. Historically, the United States has accounted for over 98 percent of Mexican orange exports.
MY 2025/26 fresh orange imports are forecast at 31,000 MT, a 24 percent increase from 25,000 MT of imports in MY 2024/25, considering the drop in domestic production volume and relatively steady fruit imports from the United States. Mexico imports fresh oranges exclusively from the United States, which go to retail and wholesale markets.
Policy
At the time of this report, the exportation of fresh oranges, grapefruit, and tangerines from Mexico to the United States is allowed for compliant products under current USDA/APHIS and SADER/SENASICA work plans. Since 1988, the state of Sonora has been a fruit fly-free zone according to USDA/APHIS, and fruit grown in this state is not regulated by the applicable work plans for citrus fruits. Read the full report at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Citrus%20Annual_Monterrey%20ATO_Mexico_MX2025-0069.pdf — By USDA Foreign Ag Service Mexico and Eduardo Lozano
