California Fruit and Vegetable

Category: Citrus

  • CA Valencia Orange Production Forecast At 17.2 Million Cartons

    The March 2021-22 Valencia orange forecast is 17.2 million cartons, down from last year’s utilized production of 19 million. This forecast was based on the results of the 2021-22 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from January 11 to February 28, 2022. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per carton were used in the statistical models estimating production. The season had experienced scattered precipitation in some areas but mainly warm and dry conditions in January and February. Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 541, a 0.7% decrease from the previous year and slightly above the five-year average. The average March 1 diameter was 2.459 inches, down 3.6% from the previous year and slightly below the five-year average of 2.539.

    SURVEY HISTORY

    A Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey was conducted from the 1985-86 to 1993-94 seasons before suspension due to a lack of funding. The survey has been conducted since it was reinstated for the 1999-00 season, with the exception of the 2006-07 season due to a substantial freeze. The data from the first three years after the survey was reinstated were used for research purposes in developing crop- estimating models.

    SURVEY SAMPLE

    A sample of 381 Valencia orange groves were randomly selected proportional to acreage, county, and variety representation in the state, with 349 of these groves being utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected for each grove. For each randomly selected tree, its trunk was measured along with all connected branches. A random number table was then used to select a branch, and then all connected branches from the randomly-selected branch were measured.

    This process was repeated until a branch was reached with no significant limbs beyond it. This randomly-selected branch, called the terminal branch, was then closely inspected to count all fruit connected to it, as well as all of the fruit along the path from the trunk to the terminal branch. Since each selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, a probability- based method was then applied to estimate a fruit count for the entire tree.

    In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were collected on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two trees of every third sampled grove. These measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter per tree. The sampled groves were primarily in the top Valencia orange producing counties of Tulare, Kern, Fresno, Ventura, and San Diego.

  • CA Prune Board Advances Study of Prunes and Bone Health

    The California Prune Board (CPB) is leading the way in investigating a connection between prunes and favorable bone through a growing body of evidence spanning two decades. Building on this remarkable and extensive research, the organization is announcing recently published scientific data supporting the role prunes may play in optimal bone health, while previewing a pipeline of clinical trials currently underway.

    “The science has shown us that something unique is going on with prunes, as we’ve uncovered some remarkable connections to bone health,” said Donn Zea, Executive Director, California Prune Board. “With every study we learn something more compelling further piquing our curiosity. Our research program has more to explore, and we’re excited to see where this takes us in terms of learning more about the benefits of prunes for bone health.”

    RECENTLY PUBLISHED HIGHLIGHTS

    In a recent review paper published in Advances in Nutrition titled, “The Role of Prunes in Modulating Inflammatory Pathways to Improve Bone Health in Postmenopausal Women,” researchers from Pennsylvania State University examined the relationship between prune consumption, oxidative stress, inflammation, and favorable bone health outcomes, summarizing the results of preclinical and clinical trials. They reported that the bone-protective effects of prunes found in postmenopausal women appear to be connected to the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activity that prunes stimulate within the body. Moreover, the authors also suggested that prunes’ favorable effect on bone may be partially explained by changes in the gut microbiota that can come from regular prune consumption.

    Additionally, in a USDA-funded clinical trial recently published in Nutrients, titled “The Short-term Effects of Prunes in Improving Bone in Men,” investigators from Florida State University sought to test the effect of daily prune consumption on bone metabolism in 35 men over the age of 50 who had some bone loss. The early findings showed a reduction in osteocalcin, a biomarker of bone turnover, and an increase in what’s known as the OPG:RANKL ratio, indicating prunes may have a positive effect on bone status after just three months of eating this whole fruit daily. These preliminary findings are a subset of a larger study with results that have not yet been published but are anticipated in the next 12-18 months.

    “As a researcher it’s exciting to see a positive change in bone turnover in these men from prune consumption after a relatively short period of time. We anticipate even more favorable results in bone status once the men have completed a full year of eating prunes every day,” said Principal Investigator Bahram Arjmandi, PhD, RDN, Professor and Director, Center for Advancing Exercise and Nutrition Research on Aging, Florida State University.

    RESEARCH UNDERWAY

    In addition to this recently published data, the following nutrition studies from highly credentialed research institutions are currently in progress and working toward completion or journal publication:

    Randomized Controlled Trial of Dietary Supplementation with Prunes on Bone Density, Bone Geometry, and Bone Strength in Postmenopausal Women

    Principal Investigator: Mary Jane De Souza, PhD – Pennsylvania State University

    With a cohort of over 200 postmenopausal women, this is the largest clinical trial to date to investigate the effect of prunes on bone status as a non-pharmaceutical plant-based strategy to combat bone breakdown.

    The Effects of 12-months of Prune Consumption on Bone Mineral Density and Bone Turnover Markers in Korean Postmenopausal Women with Osteopenia

    Principal Investigator: Peter Clifton, PhD – University of South Australia

    Co- Principal Investigator: Yoona Kim, PhD, RD, Gyeongsang National University, Korea

    This clinical trial in South Korea is the first study outside of the United States to investigate the bone protective benefits of daily consumption of prunes in Korean osteopenic postmenopausal women.

    The Impact of Consuming California Prunes on Bone Health of Young Women Using Hormonal Contraceptives

    Principal Investigator: Shirin Hooshmand, PhD, RD – San Diego State University

    The study is investigating the impact of prune consumption on bone formation and in preventing or slowing bone loss in young women 18-25 years old taking hormonal contraceptives.

    “Bone health, whether optimizing bone formation early in life or preventing bone loss in adulthood, is critical at all life stages given that the human skeleton is dynamic, undergoing a continuous cycle of building and breaking down bone,” said Andrea N. Giancoli, MPH, RD, Nutrition Advisor, California Prune Board. “We are aiming to better understand the role of prunes in this cycle that is strongly correlated to gut health, inflammation, and oxidative states within the body.”

    While it remains unclear what bioactive compounds in prunes are responsible for the beneficial effects on bone, the prune-positive bone health story may be partially due to the array of vitamins and minerals in California Prunes known to influence bone status, namely boron, potassium, copper and vitamin K. Prunes are also rich in phenolic compounds, which research suggests may inhibit bone breakdown and stimulate bone formation. Key future directions to bridge the gap in the areas of bone and the gut-bone axis are on the research horizon.

    CREATING A VISION FOR THE FUTURE 

    Advancing bone-focused nutrition research and expanding the connection to the gut-bone axis, while also exploring clinical trials in various life stages and international populations is at the heart of the California Prune Board’s strategic vision for continued research into the next decade.

    The integrity of the California Prune Board’s nutrition research program is demonstrated by the renowned research and academic institutions with whom it has partnered and the rigorous process that ensures credible research decisions.

    A top-caliber nutrition research advisory panel, led by Mary Jo Feeney, MS, RDN, FADA, FAND, helps to guide these California Prune nutrition research efforts. The panel is comprised of highly experienced researchers and nutrition experts from academic institutions, including Tufts University, Cleveland Clinic, Pennsylvania State University, University of Minnesota, and San Diego State University. This independent advisory panel provides vision and oversight of the nutrition research program and ensures scientific rigor for every project that explores the nutritional and health benefits of California Prunes.

    The California Prune Board is deeply committed to the scientific rigor of nutrition research. For more details on previously published research, visit: https://californiaprunes.org/healthy-living/benefits-of-prunes/additional-research/

    REFERENCES

    Damani JJ, De Souza MJ, VanEvery HL, Strock NCA, Rogers CJ. The Role of Prunes in Modulating Inflammatory Pathways to Improve Bone Health in Postmenopausal Women. Adv Nutr. 2022 Jan 3:nmab162. Epub ahead of print.

    George KS, Munoz J, Ormsbee LT, Akhavan NS, Foley EM, Siebert SC, Kim JS, Hickner RC, Arjmandi BH. The Short-Term Effect of Prunes in Improving Bone in Men. Nutrients. 2022 Jan 10;14(2):276.

    ABOUT THE CALIFORNIA PRUNE BOARD

    The California Prune Board was established in 1952 to represent growers and handlers under the authority of the California Secretary of Food and Agriculture. California is the world’s largest producer of prunes with orchards across 14 counties in the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys. Promoting a lifetime of wellness through the enjoyment of California Prunes, the organization leads the premium prune category with generations of craftsmanship supported by California’s leading food safety and sustainability standards.

    California Prunes. Prunes. For life.

  • Despite Production Challenges, Egypt to Continue as World’s Largest Fresh Orange Exporter

    The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Cairo anticipates Egypt to maintain its position as the number one orange exporter in MY 2021/22 despite production challenges. In marketing year (MY) 2021/22, FAS Cairo forecasts fresh orange exports to reach 1.45 million metric tons (MMT) down from 1.67 MMT in MY 2020/21. Post attributes the decrease in exports to lower production amid unfavorable climate conditions. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, India, Bangladesh, United Arab Emirates, China, United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Oman are likely to remain Egypt’s top ten export destinations for fresh oranges. 

    Planted Area:

    In MY 2021/22, FAS Cairo forecasts total planted area in oranges at 168,000 hectares (ha), similar to the previous marketing year. MY 2020/21 planted area at 168,000 ha remains unchanged from the USDA official estimate. Most of the area planted with oranges is located in desert reclaimed lands which account for 70 percent of the total area. Plantations in the Nile Delta region account for 30 percent of the total orange planted area.

    Post estimates MY 2021/22 total harvested area at 135,000 ha, a 6.9 percent decrease from last year. The decrease in area harvested is attributed to an approximately 7.2 percent decrease in the number of bearing trees from the previous year due to unfavorable weather conditions during flowering time that negatively impacted fruit set, and hence the harvest as a result.

    Production:

    In MY 2021/22, FAS Cairo forecasts orange production to decrease by almost 16 percent, or 570,000 MT to 3 MMT. The decrease in production is attributed to severe weather conditions and fluctuating temperatures during flowering of the trees which impacted fruit set and production. Orange production in the Nile Delta was also impacted by a 25-30 percent increase in fertilizer prices due to higher costs of production and larger exports by the fertilizer industry to capture higher prices in the global market. Typical land ownership in the Nile Delta is an acre or less.

    Post is also revising the MY 2020/21 estimate upwards by 170,000 MT to 3.57 MMT from the USDA official projection of 3.4 MMT. We attribute the increase in production to higher yields and favorable weather conditions last season during the flowering time that positively impacted fruit set and hence the production as a result.

    Most of Egypt’s orange production come from commercial farms on reclaimed desert land established during the last three decades, rather than the Nile Valley where land ownership is fragmented and farmers cannot afford the necessary level of investment for sustainable orange production. Despite these challenges, replacing old orchards with newer trees, improving on-farm irrigation techniques, adopting up-to date nutrient management programs, and reducing post-harvest losses are ongoing efforts by growers associations and the government.

    Orange is the major citrus crop in Egypt, representing about 80 percent of the total cultivated citrus area. Egypt’s main orange varieties include the following:

    Washington Navel Orange: Washington Navel is the key cultivar navel orange grown in Egypt and the best-known naval orange being exported. There are other lesser known navel orange cultivars such as Navelate, Cara Cara, New Hall, Navelina, Fisher, Leng, Fukumoto and Lane late. Fruit color break starts in late September and ripening fruit dates extend from November to March. The fruit is seedless, medium to large-sized, with relatively rough skin in some cultivar and soft skin in others. It has a sweet flavor with a fruit taste. The rind is orange with dark pulp.

    Valencia Orange: Valencia ranks second after Navel oranges as far as area cultivated. Nubaria district is considered the largest production area for Valencia oranges in Egypt. Valencias have a long ripening season from March to July. The fruit pulp is juicy and it is medium to large-sized with a round to oval shape. The skin is soft and easily peeled, the seeds are small, and the rind and flesh are orange.

    Other Varieties: There are other orange varieties like Baladi orange, Blood orange, Khalily orange, Yafawy oranges and Sweet orange. Cultivated areas of these varieties are small compared to Navel and Valencia orange, and they’re mainly consumed fresh or as juice.

    Consumption:

    In MY 2021/22, FAS Cairo forecasts that fresh oranges domestic consumption will decrease by 19.3 percent to reach 1.25 MMT. Decrease in local consumption is attributed to lower production and more growers directing their produce towards exports as worldwide orange demand is on the rise. Globally, consumers have increased their utilization of fresh oranges amid the COVID-19 pandemic due to its high vitamin C content.

    In MY 2021/22, utilization of oranges by the processing sector is forecast to decrease by approximately 14.3 percent from the previous marketing year as a result of the anticipated lower fresh orange production and higher costs of the processing sector production and transportation which is reflected in consumer prices. MY 2020/21 fresh domestic consumption and processing estimates remains unchanged from the USDA official estimate.

    Trade:

    In MY 2021/22, FAS Cairo forecasts orange exports to decrease by approximately 13.2 percent to reach 1.45 MMT. We attribute this decrease to anticipated lower production which will affect the export volume. FAS Cairo anticipates Egypt to maintain its position as the number one orange exporter in MY 2021/22, despite production challenges due to severe climate conditions.

    Post is revising upward the estimates of fresh orange exports in MY 2020/21 to 1.67 MMT from the USDA official estimate of 1.5 MMT.

    Post attributes this increase in exports to higher production, more growers linked to international markets and a rise in global prices amid increased consumer demand.

    The majority of orange exporters are producers and own packing facilities that are approved for export by the government. They also buy from local farmers if their production is not sufficient to meet their export obligations. Other exporters own packing facilities but do not produce oranges, and thus rely on local farmers. In these cases, the exporters are responsible for transporting the crop to their packing facilities.

    The Central Administration for Plant Quarantine (CAPQ) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MALR) and the Agricultural Export Council (AEC) have agreed to start the orange export season on December 15, 2021 for the MY 2021/22. The export season for oranges usually starts with shipments to the Arabian Gulf followed by Russia, Ukraine, and then to the European Union and East Asia.

    In MY 2020/21, Egyptian orange exports reached 111 countries compared to 104 countries in MY 2019/20 with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, India, Bangladesh, United Arab Emirates, China, United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Oman as Egypt’s top ten export destinations for oranges. Post expects that the top ten export destinations in MY 2021/22 will remain unchanged from MY 2020/21 (Figure 1).

    Figure 1: Top Ten Markets for Egypt’s Fresh Orange Exports

    Successful joint efforts by the Egyptian government and the private sector to open new markets such as New Zealand, Brazil, and Japan and other markets over the last few years – will increase orange exports. These joint efforts have also contributed to the application of a modernized tracking systems for oranges exports during the stages of cultivation, production, packaging and export.

    The success of Egypt’s export policy in opening new markets and establishing a traceability system have contributed to Egypt being the top orange exporter in the world during the past 5 years with a total volume of 8.32 MMT. All of these developments support a positive outlook for Egyptian orange exports as well as encouraging agribusinesses to invest in establishing new facilities or expanding capacity.

    Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to its top ten destinations in MY 2020/21 amounted to 1.27 MMT compared to 1.06 MMT in MY 2019/20, an increase of almost 20.5 percent. In MY 2020/21, Egypt’s fresh orange exports to the top ten destinations constituted 75 percent of total exports compared to 77 percent of total exports in MY 2019/20.

    Metric Tons

    This drop is due to a smaller overall export volume in MY 2019/20 (1.37 MMT) compared to 1.67 MMT of fresh orange exports in MY 2020/21. It is also reflected in higher export volumes to key markets as well as exploring new export ones.

    In MY 2020/21, the most significant increase in Egypt’s fresh orange exports were to India with a more than threefold increase compared to the previous marketing year due to higher demand by Indian consumers amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Exports to Bangladesh have also increased a great deal, by 75 percent. Exports to Russia increased by 15 percent and Egyptian orange exports to Saudi Arabia have also increased, by 6 percent. Exports to the Netherlands increased by 11 percent in MY 2020/21 compared to MY 2019/20.

    In contrast, Egyptian orange exports to the Chinese market dropped by roughly 32 percent in MY 2020/21 compared to the previous marketing year due to inflated freight prices.

    Marketing:

    Russia: Turkey and South Africa are Egypt’s main competitors in the Russian market. However, Egypt’s total exports to Russia in CY 2021 (Jan-Sep) was at 238,560 MT exceeding both origins by a wide margin – South Africa at 36,929 MT and Turkey shipped 34,822 MT. Egypt’s total exports to Russia in CY 2020 was at 211,113 MT, also exceeding both origins by a wide margin – Turkey at 112,353 MT and South Africa shipped 77,045 MT. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC)

    Saudi Arabia: Egypt’s main competitors in the Saudi Arabian market are traditionally South Africa, Spain, and Lebanon. In CY 2021 (Jan-Sep), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to the Saudi Arabian market amounted to 245,569 MT exceeding the three origins by wide margins. South African exports amounted to 61,740 MT, Spain’s exports at 10,788 MT, followed by Lebanese fresh orange exports at 8,380 MT. In CY 2020, Egypt was also the leading exporter to Saudi Arabia with a total of 254,486 MT versus 89,373 MT exported by South Africa. followed by Lebanon at 24,358 MT, and Spain at 15,348 MT. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC)

    EU- 28: Egypt’s main competitors in the European Union are South Africa and Morocco. In CY 2020, South Africa exported 453,745 MT versus 211,697 MT exported by Egypt followed by Morocco at 74,864 MT. In CY 2021 (Jan-Aug), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to the European Union have increased by 22 percent compared to the same period in CY 2020 amounting to 308,384 MT, and exceeding South Africa which shipped 158,932 followed by Morocco at 45,454 MT. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC)

    India: South Africa is Egypt’s competitor in this market. In CY 2020, Egyptian exports amounted to 26,665 MT while South Africa supplied 11,000 MT to the Indian Market. In CY 2021 (Jan-Sep), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to India amounted to 126,271 MT exceeding the South African origin by wide margins. In CY 2021 (Jan-Sep), South Africa shipped only 12,179 MT to India. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC).

    Bangladesh: Egypt’s main competitor in the Bangladeshi market are mainly India and South Africa. In CY 2021 (Jan-Sep), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to Bangladesh amounted to 107,000 MT, India at 62,531 MT and South African exports amounted to 40,127 MT. In CY 2020, India was the leading

    exporter to Bangladesh with a total of 127,914 MT versus 66,000 MT exported by South Africa and another 66,000 MT exported by Egypt. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC)

    China: South Africa is Egypt’s main competitor in this market. In CY 2020, Egyptian exports to the Chinese market amounted to 112,373 MT while South Africa supplied 105,000 MT. In CY 2021 (Jan- Sep), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to the Chinese market amounted to 86,130 MT, and South African exports amounted to 66,861 MT. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC)

    United Arab Emirates: In CY 2020, South Africa exported 89,527 MT versus 138,611 MT exported by Egypt. In CY 2021 (Jan-Aug), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to the UAE market amounted to 49,432 MT, and South African exports amounted to 76,420 MT (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC).

    United Kingdom: Egypt’s competitors in the UK market are mainly Spain and South Africa. In CY 2021 (Jan-Sep), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to the United Kingdom amounted to 64,000 MT, Spain at 66,000 MT, and South African exports amounted to 45,386 MT. In CY 2020, Spain was the leading exporter to the United Kingdom with a total of 93,500 MT versus 67,800 MT exported by South Africa, followed by Egypt which shipped 55,217 MT to the UK market. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC)

    Ukraine: In CY 2020, Egyptian exports to Ukraine amounted to 41,600 MT while Turkey supplied 30,639 MT. In CY 2021 (Jan-Sep), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to the Ukrainian market amounted to 48,192 MT and Turkish exports amounted to 5,291 MT, a 70 percent decline compared to the same period in CY 2020. (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC)

    Oman: In CY 2020, Egypt exported 35,770 MT to Oman versus 13,171 MT exported by South Africa. In CY 2021 (Jan-Sep), Egypt’s exports of fresh oranges to Oman amounted to 35,000 MT, and South African exports amounted to 10,000 MT (Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC). — By Ahmed Wally, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

  • Challenges for the Japanese Citrus Market

    Japan’s mandarin production continues to decline amidst labor shortages and reduced consumption. Shipping challenges and rising prices are projected to reduce the consumption of largely imported oranges and grapefruit. FAS/Tokyo anticipates that the resumption of hotel and restaurant operations following 2020-2021 COVID-19-related states of emergency will support the recovery of the Japanese demand for fresh lemons.

    Production

    Japan’s domestic tangerine/mandarin production primarily focuses on Satsuma mandarins, also known as “Unshu mikan” or “Unshu orange” (referred to as “unshu” hereafter). After reaching peak production of 3.7 million metric tons (MT) and a corresponding price drop in 1975, Japan’s unshu production has been steadily declining in line with production plans by Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). In response, some citrus farmers have transitioned to producing non-unshu varieties (e.g., Natsu-Mikan (Citrus natsudaidai) and Iyokan (Citrus Iyo)). Although this transition had partially offset falling unshu production, non-unshu production has also been declining since 1987 due to the overarching challenge in Japanese agriculture of aging farmers and a lack of successors.

    In marketing year (MY: October – September) 2021/22, FAS/Tokyo forecasts area harvested for tangerines/mandarins in Japan will shrink by 1,300 hectares (ha) to 50,400 ha from MY 2020/21. The unshu varieties will represent approximately 80 percent of Japan’s total tangerine/mandarin production, and the remainder will be non-unshu varieties.

    Japan’s tangerine/mandarin season runs generally between October and May, where unshu production occurs primarily between October to February, followed by non-unshu varieties. According to MAFF statistics, five western prefectures (Wakayama, Ehime, Shizuoka, Kumamoto, and Nagasaki) produce nearly 70 percent of Japan’s unshu. These five prefectures are also major producers of non-unshu varieties. Until MY 2019/20, MAFF had set an “appropriate production/distribution quantity” target to control production, but recent unshu production fell short of the targets. Therefore, MAFF decided to shift away from government-driven production control. For MY 2021/22, MAFF announced a tangerine/mandarin demand estimate in an effort to balance production with market demand. 

    MAFF’s MY 2021/22 demand estimate for unshu is 760,000 MT, 6,000 MT down from MY 2020/21. However, based on industry sources, FAS/Tokyo forecasts Japan’s MY 2021/22 production will fall short of meeting that demand. According to Wakayama unshu farmers, MY 2021/22 will be an “off– year” for the alternatively bearing unshu in Wakayama and Shizuoka prefectures. Furthermore, long rains in May and August negatively impacted production due to increased incidence of Botrytis cinerea and citrus black spot disease. FAS/Tokyo forecasts MY 2021/22 tangerine/mandarin production at 924,000 MT, down 5.3 percent from MY 2020/21 level, of which 720,000 MT will be unshu.

    Consumption

    Approximately 90 percent of domestically produced tangerines/mandarins are consumed fresh in Japan. The remainder is processed, mostly for juice. According to surveys carried out by the Japan Fruit Association (JFA) and the Japan Co-operative Alliance (JCA), price is increasingly the key consideration for Japanese consumers in purchasing fresh fruit. For example, the 2020 JFA survey found that approximately 55 percent of Japanese consumers eat fresh fruit less than once a week due to cost. Although at-home food consumption, where tangerines/mandarins are typically eaten, has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, this trend has not led to an increase in fresh fruit consumption. Consequently and in light of the expected decline in domestic tangerine/mandarin production, FAS/Tokyo forecasts Japan’s total tangerine/mandarin consumption will decrease by 5.0 percent from MY 2020/21 to 949,000 MT in MY 2021/22.

    Imports

    In MY 2020/21, Japan’s imports of fresh tangerines/mandarins rose by 9.9 percent to 23,103 MT, primarily due to summer tangerine imports from Peru (Table 1), which gained market access to Japan for tangerines/mandarins in 2018. Although Peruvian tangerines are typically more price-competitive than U.S. or Australian products, there is minimal overlap or direct competition in the Japanese market between tangerine/mandarin imports from the United States and southern hemisphere. Nevertheless, despite remaining the top fresh tangerine/mandarin supplier to Japan, the U.S. import share has been declining in the last few years due to changing production patterns and export priorities in the United States, as well as increasing price (Table 1).

    FAS/Japan forecasts Japan’s imports of tangerines/mandarins to increase to 25,000 MT in MY 2021/22 or by 8.2 percent from MY 2020/21 levels, largely due to growing consumption in the summer months driven by the availability of Australian and Peruvian products.

    Exports

    Despite COVID-19-related restrictions on travel and promotional activities, Japan’s fresh tangerine/mandarin exports increased to 1,416 MT or by 34.4 percent from MY 2019/20 to MY 2020/21 largely due to greater demand from established customers in Hong Kong. Given the Government of Japan’s focus on boosting agricultural exports, including unshu (see JA2021-0103 titled “Japan Releases Details on Agricultural Export Expansion Plan”), FAS/Tokyo forecasts MY 2021/22 Japan’s tangerine/mandarin exports will grow to 1,800 MT or by 27 percent from MY 2020/21 levels.

    Policy

    U.S. tangerine/mandarin exports (Harmonized System Code (HS) 0805.21, clementines (HS 0805.22) and similar varieties (HS 0805.29)) continue to face a tariff disadvantage compared to tangerines/mandarins from member countries, including Australia and Peru, of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The import tariff rate for CPTPP tangerines/mandarins is 5.6 percent, while U.S. products face a 17 percent tariff. Read the full report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service HERE.

  • Weather Conditions Cause of Rind Breakdown in Satsuma Mandarin

    Although you never know about the weather, we do know that if heavy rain occurs after color break in mandarins there can be significant rind breakdown. This problem can destroy much of the crop and the problem is largely preventable.

    Pre-harvest rind decay of mandarins in California generally occurs shortly after rain falls and is most severe on Satsuma mandarins. Although some researchers have associated the problem with fungi such as Alternaria species, isolations from affected fruit have been inconsistent. Inoculations with isolated fungi only sometimes reproduce disease symptoms and only on water-soaked fruit. Furthermore, in preliminary field trials there were conducted in Butte Co in the fall of 2002 and 2003, fungicide treatments that included Topsin-M, Pristine and Abound only reduced the incidence of disease from 99% in the control to approximately 90% .  These data suggested that mandarin rind breakdown is a physiological, abiotic disorder of fruit rather than a pathological problem and the fungi isolated are rather secondary causes of rind decay than primary pathogens.

    Rind breakdown of citrus was previously reported by Fawcett and others in the 1930s. Wet weather combined with a sudden decrease in temperature was shown to result in generation of rind oil and collapse of cells just under the cuticle. In laboratory and field trials in 2003, fruit treatments with water repellants reduced the incidence of rind breakdown to very low levels. Field trials were again conducted in the fall of 2004. Fungicide treatments were ineffective in these trials. In all trials, application so Vapor-Gard or Omni oil significantly reduced the disorder. In all programs with Vapor-Gard and Omni oil, a first application was made at the end of October and there was no significant difference in efficacy when additions applications were done. When tree were protected from rainfall using a tent, the disorder could not be detected, indicating the rind breakdown is correlated to rainfall.

    In summary, results from the trials support previous findings by Fawcett that mandarin rind disorder is an abiotic, weather-related problem of mature fruit that has undergone a green to orange color change. Using a water repellant helps protect the fruit. — By Ben Faber, UCCE Ventura County Advisor

  • Research Indicates Paint Not Effective At Protecting Young Avocados From Herbicide Drift

    California Avocado Commission — While it is often common practice for fruit growers to apply white latex paint to the bottom 2 to 3 feet of young, newly planted trees in order to provide some protection from herbicide drift, researchers note there is little evidence to prove this practice is effective.

    A recent blog post by Dr. Ben Faber summarized the findings of a California field experiment conducted in 2017 that measured the impact of latex paint in preventing herbicide injury on young almond trees. The block of trees consisted of greenhouse-grown trees in cartons. Nine weeks prior to the herbicide applications, the cartons were removed for trees in the “no paint” and “old paint” sections so their bark could harden off. Two days prior to applying the herbicide, the cartons were removed for the “new paint” trees and then the trees were painted.

    According to the researchers:

    • The paint did not provide significant protection from glyphosate or glufosinate.
    • Tree stress caused by trunk-applied herbicides was lowest in trees with no paint, suggesting that allowing the bark to harden on young trees is an important means of protecting them from herbicide drift.
    • In most treatment combinations, old and new paint applications did not reduce tree stress as effectively as allowing the bark to harden on trees nine weeks prior to application.
    • The most effective means of protecting trunks was installing a carton. However, it is important to remember that once the carton is removed (as the tree matures), there may be green bark present which would be vulnerable to herbicides.

  • CA Avocado Disease Management Webinar, FEB. 16

    The California Avocado Society, California Avocado Commission and UC Cooperative Extension are hosting a free online Grower Webinar: Avocado Disease Management session on Wednesday, February 16 from 9:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.

    The webinar is designed to provide growers and grove managers with information concerning management strategies for diseases that California avocado trees are prone to. The online seminar will cover:

    • Approaches to combating avocado root rot, including pesticide management
    • The availability of a new chemical to manage Phytophthora
    • Other chemical and horticultural practices related to disease management in California avocado groves

    The presenters include Dr. Ben Faber, Crops Advisor for the UC Cooperative Extension, and Dakota Camino, PCA with Syngenta.

    Online registration for the webinar is now available.

  • New Lab to Study Evolving Tree Fruit Bacteria

    Joining Washington State University (WSU) as the newly established Endowed Chair in Bacterial Diseases of Tree Fruits, Frank Zhao will study and seek better ways to manage devastating bacterial pathogens in tree fruit.

    In bad years, these microbial disease heavy hitters such as fire blight and X‑disease phytoplasma cost apple, cherry, and pear growers hundreds of millions of dollars nationally in lost fruit as well as treatment and removal of infected trees.

    “We need more tools in our toolbox to deal with bacterial diseases, particularly for organic orchards,” said Zhao, who comes to WSU from the University of Illinois to launch a new, industry-funded research program in tree fruit microbiology.

    Growers’ most effective tool has always been antibiotics—chemical drugs that kill bacteria or make it difficult for them to reproduce.

    But bacteria can develop resistance that renders antibiotics less or even totally ineffective. In organic orchards, chemicals are often prohibited, raising demand for new techniques.

    “Disease outbreaks can be unpredictable in their severity,” Zhao said. “Pathogens change over time—we now know there are at least four different strains of the fire blight pathogen.”

    Becoming interested in plant-pathogenic bacteria as a master’s student in China, he has spent his career studying where pathogens come from and how they adapt and survive, most recently the fire blight bacterium, Erwinia amylovora, which has caused serious damage in Pacific Northwest orchards in the past several years, as well as the pseudomonas family of bacteria, which infect a range of crops.

    Zhao studies both good and bad microorganisms. Devising strategies to control harmful bacteria with beneficial microbes, he has experimented with nanoparticles as a method to deliver biocontrol agents in orchards. He plans to continue studies of biocontrols and ‘good’ microorganisms at WSU.

    Working in the field and the lab, Zhao will screen for and map antibiotic resistance in Washington orchards, identifying the predominant strains of top-priority pathogens such as fire blight and bacterial canker of sweet cherries.

    As he begins his efforts in Washington, Zhao will connect with growers to understand their experiences and challenges.

    “All these will help me tremendously in getting my program started,” he said. “In turn, I can learn from them and better solve the disease challenges that fruit producers are facing.” — By Seth Truscott, Washington State University College of Agricultural, Human & Natural Resource Sciences

  • CA Pre-Season Avocado Crop Estimate at 306 Million Pounds

    In December 2021, the California Avocado Commission surveyed industry handlers to develop the following 2022 California Avocado Pre-Season Crop Estimate (please note the California Avocado Commission’s crop year is aligned with the calendar year, January 1st through December 31st, and therefore information provided is for the 2022 calendar year.)

    Hass production is forecasted at 291 million pounds, Lamb-Hass at 9 million pounds, GEM at 5 million pounds, and 1 million pounds of other varieties, which comes to a total estimate of 306 million pounds. The Commission has also compiled detailed crop projections, including: pre-Season industry volume estimates broken down by month and variety; weekly harvest forecast utilizing AMRIC Handler Survey percentages for Hass variety (four-year historical forecast used for Lamb, three-year historical forecast used for GEM and Other); and weekly harvest forecast comparison of four-year historical forecast versus AMRIC Handler Survey.

    The Commission has also compiled detailed crop projections, including:

    • Pre-Season industry volume estimates, broken down by month and variety, based on AMRIC Handler Survey responses
    • Weekly harvest forecast utilizing AMRIC Handler Survey percentages for Hass variety (four-year historical forecast used for Lamb, three-year historical forecast used for GEM and Other)
    • Weekly harvest forecast comparison of four-year historical forecast versus AMRIC Handler Survey

    The Commission staff will remain in contact with growers, handlers and grove managers throughout the season, via surveys and telephone conversations, to track harvest strategy and will provide updated forecasts to the industry as they become available. As we have done in the past, CAC will plan to follow up with the handlers in February to discuss crop volume and harvest plans before the season gets underway.

    In addition to handler surveys and discussions, the annual grower crop survey and acreage inventory survey will be conducted in Spring 2022, with a mid-season crop estimate update available mid-May 2022.

  • Turkish Orange Crop Forecast Up 40%

    In Market Year (MY) 2021/22, the orange yield is forecast to increase 40 percent to 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) due to favorable rainy weather conditions in March and April 2021. The input costs for items such as fertilizer, fuel, and pesticides are still considered too high while farm gate prices are too low to compensate for the high production costs. Orange exports in MY 2021/22 are expected to increase 20 percent to 265,000 MT when compared with the previous season in correlation with high yield expectations. Tangerine exports in MY 2021/22 are expected to increase 11 percent to 1 MMT in correlation with higher production expectations. In 2021/22, lemon production is expected to increase 27 percent to 1.4 million MT with good quality fruit due to favorable weather conditions in late spring in 2021. The main problems reported by lemon producers in Turkey are diseases and pests, input costs such as fertilizers and chemicals, labor costs for tree trimming, crop quality, and marketing issues. 

    Figure 1. Turkish Citrus Exports by Products, Marketing Years (MY) 2018-2020

    Harmonized System (HS) Codes:

    Oranges 080510
    Tangerines/Mandarins 080520, 080521, 080522, 080529 Lemons 080550
    Grapefruits 080540
    Orange Juice 200911, 200912, 200919

    Abbreviations used in this report:

    FAS USDA Foreign Agricultural Service TDM Trade Data Monitoring
    MT Metric ton (1,000 kg)
    MMT Million Metric Tons

    GoT The Government of Turkey
    MinAF Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry MY Marketing year
    PS&D Production, Supply and Distribution
    TL Turkish Lira
    TurkSTAT Turkish Statistical Institute
    USD U.S. Dollar

    Commodities:

    Oranges, Fresh

    Production:

    In MY 2021/22, the orange yield is forecast to increase 40 percent to 1.82 MMT due to favorable rainy weather conditions in March and April 2021. However, in recent months, producers have become concerned about drought conditions affecting the fruit. According to producers, water which is provided by the Irrigation Unions in the region, has already been restricted for orchards due to overall decreasing water levels in local dams because limited rainfall. This issue affects the quality of the fruit but doesn’t greatly affect the yield, according to producers. On the other hand, the yield in the Aegean region is expected to decrease 15 percent due to the freezing weather conditions during the Spring 2021 months.

    Figure 2. Turkey Orange Production and Orchards Comparison, MY 2018/19 – 2020/21

    In MY 2020/21, Turkey produced 1.3 million MT of oranges, which is 23 percent lower than MY 2019/20 (1.7 million MT), due to excessive hot weather conditions in May 2020 during the blooming period of trees. Losses and tonnage problems were seen in MY 2020/21, especially for the Washington variety, which produced 25 percent less fruit than the previous season. Orange production totaled 31 percent of Turkey’s total citrus production in MY 2020/21.

    Turkey produces mostly the Washington variety of oranges, with that variety accounting for 70 percent of total orange production. Eighty-five percent of oranges are produced in the Mediterranean region while 15 percent are produced in Aegean region. 

    The Mediterranean fruit fly is still a major concern. Producers are planning to harvest and sell their products much earlier than normal in order to prevent exposure to the harmful flies. In addition, the input costs for items such as fertilizer, fuel, and pesticides are still considered too high while farm gate prices are too low to compensate for the high production costs. Producers are concerned about MY 2021/22 production since it is expected that input prices will continue to increase, especially fuel and fertilizers.

    Figure 3. Orange Producers Gate Prices, Comparison TL and $ Basis

    As shown in Figure 2, the number of orchards has been decreasing for the last 3 years as producers convert orchard land or determine profits are not great enough to invest fertilizer and pesticides. However, the area is expected to increase for MY 2021/22. The decrease in MY 2020/21 was seen mostly in orchards of the Washington and yapha varieties while orchards for other varieties have been increasing in correlation with export demands. Also, some of producers has converted their orchards from oranges and tangerines to Pitaya fruit due to high demands from touristic places. In MY 2020/21, orange orchards consist of 29 percent of total citrus orchards areas. According to producers, uncertainity concerning gate prices and lack of production technologies are the main negative factors for marketing of oranges.

    Consumption:

    In MY 2021/22, orange consumption is expected to increase to 1,488 MMT in correlation with high production expectations. In MY 2020/21, orange consumption was realized at 1,018 MT in correlation with lower production. The market price of oranges at supermarkets has been increasing, like many commodities, due to multiple stakeholders in the market chain and increasing food inflation. On the other hand, retail prices decreased in January and February 2021 since the GoT applied export restrictions to address EU regulations regarding limited pesticides residues. Many Turkish citrus exports are routinely rejected from the EU and Russia due to maximum residue levels above the importing allowances. Less exports helped the domestic orange market prices to decrease.

    In 2019/20, orange consumption per capita was 12.3 kg. In Turkey, oranges account for 49 percent of total citrus consumption. According to the sector, orange consumption has shrunk 17 percent over the last five years.

    Figure 4. Orange Retail Market Price Changes, Monthly, 2019-2020-2021

    Trade:

    Orange exports in MY 2021/22 are expected to increase 20 percent to 265,000 MT when compared with the previous season in correlation with high yield expectations and assuming normal levels of precipitation over the winter months.

    In 2020/21, Turkey exported 220,630 MT of oranges, which was 24 percent lower than the MY 2019/20 total of 291,846 MT, due to very low yields and the export restrictions laid down by MinAF at the beginning of 2021. For more information about the restrictions, please click here. In MY 2019/20, although orange exports in volume were lower than the previous season due to logistic problems because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the export value was higher than the previous season.

    Figure 5. Turkey Orange Exports (MT) and Export Value ($) Comparison, MY 2018/19-MY 2020/21

    Figure 6. Turkish Orange Exports, Comparison Table for MY 2018/19 – 2020/21

    Russia, Iraq, and Ukraine are the main Turkish orange export markets. In January 2021, the exports to Ukraine reduced 79 percent, the exports to Romania reduced 59 percent and exports to Iraq reduced 52 percent due to the MinAF export restrictions.

    According to exporters, varieties and fruit quality need to be improved and new markets such as China, Far East Countries, South Korea, and the U.S. need to be opened in order to make profits from exports. Storage conditions also need to be improved in order to avoid price fluctuations in the domestic market and foreign markets as well. Better storage facilities will enable Turkish producers to sell their products at a steady supply throughout the year, including at higher prices during lower harvest months. Recently, the European Union has increased import control inspection frequency for Turkey from 10 percent to 20 percent to address pests and maximum residue levels (MRLs) of pesticides. Turkey’s orange export value has decreased 44 percent compared to five years ago.

    Figure 7. Turkish Orange Exports, Country Comparison for MY 2018/19- MY 2020/2021

    Imports: Orange imports In MY 2021/22 are expected to stagnate at 43,000 MT, as realized in MY 2020/21. Turkey imported 43,628 MT of oranges in MY 2020/21, and 98 percent of the orange imports came from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Turkey`s orange imports depend on the low production, climate change and dispersion of production with small size orchards. Read the full report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service HERE.