USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — The initial 2021-22 California Navel orange forecast is 70.0 million cartons, down 14% from the previous year. Of the total Navel orange forecast, 67.0 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara variety Navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 6.0 million cartons. These forecasts are based on the results of the 2021-22 Navel Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from June 15 to September 1, 2021. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
This forecast includes production of conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 239, down 25% from the previous year and b e l o w the five-year average of 344. The average September 1 diameter was 2.145 inches, below the five-year average of 2.208 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 211 with a diameter of 2.146 inches.
SURVEY SAMPLE
A sample of 785 Navel orange groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, and 707 of the groves were utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected. The Navel orange sample included conventional, organic, Cara Cara, and Blood orange groves.
For each randomly selected tree, the trunk was measured along with all connected branches. A random number table was then used to select a branch, and then all connected branches from the randomly-selected branch were measured.
This process was repeated until a branch was reached with no significant limbs beyond this point. This randomly-selected branch, called the terminal branch, was then closely inspected to count all fruit connected to this branch, as well as all of the fruit along the path from the trunk to the terminal branch. Since each selected path has a probability of selection associated with the path, a probability-based method was then applied to estimate a fruit count for the entire tree.
In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were made on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two trees of every third grove. These measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter per tree. Of the 707 utilized groves, 10 were in Madera County, 119 were in Fresno County, 419 were in Tulare County, and 157 were in Kern County.
SURVEY HISTORY
A Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey has been conducted in the Central Valley every year since the 1984-85 crop year, except for the 1991-92 season due to a lack of funding. The data from the first two years were used for research purposes in developing crop-estimating models. The Cara Cara forecast was undertaken at the request of the California Citrus Advisory Committee.
In response to California State Senator Melissa Hurtado being forced to pull SB 559 after the California State Assembly Appropriations Committee removed all funding provisions, a coalition of leading California fresh produce organizations issued the following statement:
“With nearly 90 percent of the state in extreme or exceptional drought, including virtually all the 3.25 million acres of farmland dependent on irrigation from the State Water Project and Central Valley Project, the move to strip SB 559 of its funding demonstrates the clear intent of the Assembly to drive food production out of California,” said California Fresh Fruit Association President Ian LeMay. “In light of the staggering state budget surplus, the decision to defund the repair of our critical conveyance systems is not financial, but ideological, and will harm thousands of multi-generational family farms and countless disadvantaged communities in the San Joaquin Valley.”
“Water supply reliability is central to the production of food in California, and vital to the rural communities and statewide economy that is supported by the agriculture industry,” said California Citrus Mutual President and CEO Casey Creamer. “SB 559 would have funded long overdue repairs to canals and other conveyance infrastructure that have been damaged by subsidence. California cannot afford to waste even a single drop of its limited water resources in the face of changing hydrological conditions and recurring drought. In addition to the need to build more above and below ground storage, our state must also invest in fixing our broken water delivery systems.”
“Farms that cannot irrigate crops to grow food will inevitably reduce operations or cease farming altogether. When enough of them do, farmworkers lose the most,” said Western Growers President and CEO Dave Puglia. “In once again eviscerating Senator Hurtado’s legislation to repair critical water infrastructure, the Assembly’s leaders leave no uncertainty as to the future they want for the farms, farmers, farmworkers and communities of the San Joaquin Valley. They will do whatever it takes to keep taxpayer money flowing to a high-speed rail project we can do without and do whatever it takes to deny funds to help repair water infrastructure we cannot do without. We are enormously grateful to Senator Hurtado for her tenacity and to those who stood with her even as their leaders gave them, and all of us, the middle finger.”
About California Citrus Mutual:
California Citrus Mutual was founded by growers in 1977 as a non-profit trade association and is headquartered in Exeter, California. Our members are citrus growers that collectively grow oranges, lemons, mandarins, and grapefruit across roughly 250,000 acres in California. They provide Californian’s and the world with the highest quality fresh citrus, are a critical economic sector for our rural communities, and provide ladders of opportunities for their hardworking employees and their families.
About California Fresh Fruit Association:
The California Fresh Fruit Association is a voluntary public policy organization that works on behalf of our members – growers, shippers, marketers and associates – on issues that specifically affect member commodities: fresh grapes, kiwis, pomegranates, cherries, blueberries, peaches, pears, apricots, nectarines, interspecific varieties, plums, apples and persimmons. It is the Association’s responsibility to serve as a liaison between regulatory and legislative authorities by acting as the unified voice of our members.
About Western Growers:
Founded in 1926, Western Growers represents local and regional family farmers growing fresh produce in California, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico. Western Growers’ members and their workers provide over half the nation’s fresh fruits, vegetables and tree nuts, including half of America’s fresh organic produce.
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Reliable and valid information about plant water status is a critical input variable for optimizing citrus orchard growth. Precisely managing citrus water stress during all phenological stages enables maximized production by: avoiding drought stress during flowering and fruit sets; achieving appropriate sugar levels; and maintaining fruit quality by, for example, avoiding peel creasing for example.
Controlled water status can best be precisely achieved by monitoring the Stem-Water Potential (SWP) values regularly. After five successful years of experimentation and development, Saturas’ StemSenseTM sensors were installed in mature commercial citrus orchards around the world, and at the leading research phytotron in Israel. Saturas has a full library of commercial case studies and are available by request. This brief overview cites results from two: China and Spain
Three Saturas StemSenseTM sensors were installed in an OR (Clementine) citrus orchard in the Hongjing farm, China. The StemSenseTM sensors were installed randomly in the orchard to represent the whole orchard status. The StemsenseTM sensors measured daily mid-day SWP values.
Figure 1 illustrates seasonal values of Saturas StemSenseTM mid-day SWP values, daily ET0 and irrigation volume. Of note, is the positive and significant response to irrigation and changes in evapotranspiration. Note, for example, the rain stoppage from Aug 23th to Aug 30th, as reflected by the gradually increasing SWP values.
Five Saturas StemSenseTM sensors were installed in a lemon orchard in the Velcarda farm, Spain.
The StemSenseTM sensors were installed randomly in the orchard to represent the whole orchard status. The StemSenseTM sensors measured daily mid-day SWP values.
Figure 2 illustrates seasonal values of Saturas StemSenseTM mid-day SWP values, daily ET0 and irrigation volume. The Saturas StemSenseTM sensors showed a highly correlative response to irrigation and changes in evapotranspiration Note, for example, the increase in SWP values during late July- early Aug, the influence of the small irrigation on Aug 2nd, and the response of the trees to the regular irrigation started on Aug 13th.
Saturas StemSenseTM sensors showed a very rapid response to irrigation and a positive and significant correlation to manual pressure chamber measurements.
The StemSenseTM sensors, in these two case studies, demonstrated high measures of correlation to environmental stimuli such as ET, precipitation and irrigation while delivering reliable and valid SWP values over time. The commercial utility of StemSenseTM sensors is mutli-layered. The specific result of these studies demonstrates that the Saturas StemSenseTM sensors contribute reliable and valid information to the grower, critical for making good decisions for scheduling irrigation.
In addition, the experimental and commerical aplications demonstrated a high correlation to manual pressure chamber measurements. Replicability of experimental outcomes has allowed Saturas to expand into the apple, avocado, cherry, almond, kiwi, vine markets.
Avishai Avni-Maya PhD
Chief agronomist
Saturas Ltd
972-50-7737778
avishai@saturas-ag.com