California Fruit and Vegetable

Tag: global avocado market

  • Mexico Leads Avocado Production

    Mexico continues to lead the world in avocado production. For 2026, Post forecasts Mexican avocado production to increase by 3% to 2.8 million metric tons (MMT). This is mainly a result of favorable growing conditions and sustained export demand. Mexican avocado exports are forecast to increase 7% to 1.3 MMT, with the United States remaining Mexico’s top destination for avocado exports.

    Production

    Post forecasts Mexican avocado production in calendar year (CY) 2026 at 2.80 MMT, a 3% increase from 2025. This growth is mainly a result of improved agricultural practices, favorable early-season rains and cooler conditions, and sustained export demand. Planted area is forecast to remain flat at approximately 268,000 hectares. Mexico’s avocado sector remains the global leader in production, with an estimated 28% of global production.

    While roughly 65% of orchards still rely on seasonal rainfall, producers are rapidly accelerating the adoption of pressurized irrigation. This increase in installations of high-efficiency irrigation systems is allowing producers, mainly in Michoacan and Jalisco, to strengthen water management and tree nutrition.

    Favorable climate conditions in 2025 are also helping to drive an increase in production in 2026. The 2025 rainy season was characterized by a late-quarter extension, where significant rainfall through November 2025 and into early December 2025 recharged critical volcanic aquifers. This late-season moisture, combined with mild temperatures (68°F – 73°F) in December, provided the ideal conditions for blooming. This resulted in exceptional fruit retention and allowed the crop to trend toward larger, higher-value sizes. A potential “El Niño” (expected for the second part of CY 2026) could bring drier than average conditions and heat spikes that could decrease fruit sizes.

    The Hass variety continues to dominate all commercial production due to its post-harvest durability and high consumer preference. After a 2024 cycle marked by smaller fruit sizes due to heat stress, the 2025 crop shows a marked recovery in quality and caliber. Producers are reporting a return to more retail-friendly weights, with a high availability of 40s and 48s (ranging from 9 to 12 ounces).

    Mexico produces avocados in 30 out of the 32 states in the country. However, Michoacan and Jalisco are the highest producing states, with 85%  of production in volume, and are the only states authorized to export to the United States. Remaining production in the other states is focused on the national market and niche international destinations. Michoacan remains the heart of production, situated within the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, where rich, well-draining volcanic soil covers approximately 80 percent of the total planted area.

    Post estimates Mexican avocado production for CY 2025 at 2.73 MMT, a 2% increase from 2024. High summer temperatures and drought conditions in 2024 hit the avocado production area in Michoacan and Jalisco. CY 2025 started slow, but volumes recovered given an improvement in climate conditions and a strong rainy season in Mexico.

    Read the full USDA FAS report here — USDA Foreign Ag Service Staff

  • Favorable Weather Yields Abundant Avocado Crop for Chile

    In marketing year (MY) 2024/25, favorable climatic conditions and abundant rainfall boosted avocado production to 240,000 metric tons (MT), a 60 percent increase from MY 2023/24. Post expects MY 2025/26 production to remain unchanged at 240,000 MT. The planted area remains stable at 33,025 hectares, with the Valparaíso region accounting for 61.9 percent of total production. In MY 2024/25, exports surged to 134,255 MT, a 50.3 percent increase, driven by strong demand from markets such as Argentina, the Netherlands, and Spain, while imports declined by 27.6 percent due to higher domestic supply. Chileans maintain high per capita avocado consumption, incorporating avocados into daily meals and foodservice offerings like sandwiches and sushi, with prices remaining competitive due to increased supply.

    Production

    In MY 2024/25, avocado output in Chile experienced a significant recovery despite the persistence of a multi-year drought. Favorable winter conditions, including well-distributed and above-average rainfall, contributed to improved yields and higher overall production. According to the Chilean Avocado Committee, in MY 2024/25, from July 2024 to June 2025, avocado production reached 240,000 MT, a 60 percent increase from the 150,000 MT produced in MY 2023/24.

    In MY 2024/25, the Chilean avocado area planted totaled 33,025 hectares (ha), virtually unchanged from the previous marketing year (see Figure 1). In MY 2025/26, production is expected to remain unchanged and reach 240,000 MT, assuming high yields and no changes in area planted.

    The planted area spans from the Coquimbo region in the northern part of Chile to the O’Higgins region in the central-south part of the country (see Map 1). The Valparaiso region is the top avocado producing region with 20,434 hectares, accounting for 61.9 percent of the total area planted with avocados. The Metropolitan, Coquimbo, and O’Higgins regions also hold significant shares of the area planted with avocados. Over the past three marketing years, the avocado planted area has grown in all regions (see Table 1).

    Hass is the main avocado variety produced in Chile. Consumers prefer Hass avocados for their creaminess and high oil content. However, Hass is sensitive to  frost and excessive soil humidity, which limits its cultivation to hillsides and well-drained soils. Other avocado varieties produced in Chile in smaller quantities include Edranol, Negra de la Cruz, Fuerte, and Bacon.

    Trade

    Exports

    In MY 2024/25, Chilean avocado exports reached 134,255 MT, a 50.3 percent increase compared to the 89,346 MT exported in MY 2023/24. Export volumes in the first three months of MY 2025/26 totaled 15,232 MT, two percent lower than the 15,550 MT exported during the same period in MY 2024/25 (Table 2).

    Chile’s top export markets in MY 2024/25 include by Argentina (21.7 percent), which accounted for 21.7 percent of total exports, the Netherlands (19.1 percent), Spain (12.3 percent), and the United Kingdom (11.3 percent) (Table 2). Export values also saw substantial growth. In MY 2024/25, Chilean avocado exports reached $364.4 million, a 58.6 percent increase compared to the $229.7 million recorded in MY 2023/24 (Table 3).

    Chilean avocado exports peak between October and November, coinciding with the bulk of the harvest (see Figure 2). In August 2025, avocado exports were slightly lower than the previous year, while in September 2025, they were slightly higher, reflecting expectations of relatively stable yields.

    Figure 3 shows the unit value (USD/MT) for Chilean avocado exports by month. Export values peak from April to July each year, during the Chilean offseason when avocado supply is lower. In the beginning of MY 2025/26, July to September 2025, unit values were significantly lower than the previous marketing years, which is consistent with an increase in production and exports.

    Imports

    In MY 2024/25, Chilean avocado imports decreased by 27.6 percent, totaling 49,751 MT, due to higher domestic production. Import volumes in the first three months of MY 2024/25 totaled 34,998 MT, a significant 82.3 percent increase compared to the 19,202 MT imported during the same period in MY 2023/24 (Table 4). Peru remains Chile’s dominant supplier, accounting for 99.8 percent of total imports (49,651 MT). Other smaller suppliers include Brazil and Argentina (Table 4).

    Import values also declined significantly. In MY 2024/25, Chile imported avocados valued at $74.9 million, a 33.7 percent decrease compared to the $112.8 million recorded in MY 2023/24. Peru accounted for 99.8 percent of total import value ($74.7 million), while Brazil and Argentina contributed marginal shares of $78,651 and $67,319, respectively (Table 5). Avocado imports peak during Chile’s non-production months, typically between May and August, when domestic supply is unavailable (Figure 4).

    Consumption

    After Mexico, Chile has the second highest per capita avocado consumption level in the world. Domestic demand is consistently strong, as Chileans consider avocados a staple food and incorporate them into everyday meals. The food service industry also incorporates avocados broadly into products such as sandwiches, hot dogs, salads, and sushi.

    In general, larger and defect-free avocados are sold in retail markets, while smaller sized avocados are typically preferred by the food service sector. Consumption tends to rise around July and August when domestic supply increases and retail prices fall. Despite its cultural importance, avocado demand in Chile is price-sensitive, and consumption levels can fluctuate noticeably when prices peak due to limited supply or increased export activity.

    Since there is a high demand for avocado, domestic prices are high and competitive compared to export price. Avocado prices are higher during the offseason between February and April each year (Figure 5). Prices are usually from $4.50 USD per kilogram (kg) to $5.00 USD per kg, but they can reach values as high as $6.10 USD per kg when the avocado supply is low. In MY 2024/25, prices did not pick up too much because of the high supply of avocado.

    — By the USDA Foreign Ag Service Chile and Sergio Gonzalez