California Fruit and Vegetable

Tag: Mexico avocado production

  • Mexico Leads Avocado Production

    Mexico continues to lead the world in avocado production. For 2026, Post forecasts Mexican avocado production to increase by 3% to 2.8 million metric tons (MMT). This is mainly a result of favorable growing conditions and sustained export demand. Mexican avocado exports are forecast to increase 7% to 1.3 MMT, with the United States remaining Mexico’s top destination for avocado exports.

    Production

    Post forecasts Mexican avocado production in calendar year (CY) 2026 at 2.80 MMT, a 3% increase from 2025. This growth is mainly a result of improved agricultural practices, favorable early-season rains and cooler conditions, and sustained export demand. Planted area is forecast to remain flat at approximately 268,000 hectares. Mexico’s avocado sector remains the global leader in production, with an estimated 28% of global production.

    While roughly 65% of orchards still rely on seasonal rainfall, producers are rapidly accelerating the adoption of pressurized irrigation. This increase in installations of high-efficiency irrigation systems is allowing producers, mainly in Michoacan and Jalisco, to strengthen water management and tree nutrition.

    Favorable climate conditions in 2025 are also helping to drive an increase in production in 2026. The 2025 rainy season was characterized by a late-quarter extension, where significant rainfall through November 2025 and into early December 2025 recharged critical volcanic aquifers. This late-season moisture, combined with mild temperatures (68°F – 73°F) in December, provided the ideal conditions for blooming. This resulted in exceptional fruit retention and allowed the crop to trend toward larger, higher-value sizes. A potential “El Niño” (expected for the second part of CY 2026) could bring drier than average conditions and heat spikes that could decrease fruit sizes.

    The Hass variety continues to dominate all commercial production due to its post-harvest durability and high consumer preference. After a 2024 cycle marked by smaller fruit sizes due to heat stress, the 2025 crop shows a marked recovery in quality and caliber. Producers are reporting a return to more retail-friendly weights, with a high availability of 40s and 48s (ranging from 9 to 12 ounces).

    Mexico produces avocados in 30 out of the 32 states in the country. However, Michoacan and Jalisco are the highest producing states, with 85%  of production in volume, and are the only states authorized to export to the United States. Remaining production in the other states is focused on the national market and niche international destinations. Michoacan remains the heart of production, situated within the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, where rich, well-draining volcanic soil covers approximately 80 percent of the total planted area.

    Post estimates Mexican avocado production for CY 2025 at 2.73 MMT, a 2% increase from 2024. High summer temperatures and drought conditions in 2024 hit the avocado production area in Michoacan and Jalisco. CY 2025 started slow, but volumes recovered given an improvement in climate conditions and a strong rainy season in Mexico.

    Read the full USDA FAS report here — USDA Foreign Ag Service Staff

  • Expanding Global Markets for Mexican Avocado Production

    Mexico avocado production for marketing year 2021/22 is forecasted eight percent lower than the record production observed the previous marketing year. While production will remain strong, growers expect trees will need to recover for a season. High international demand and attractive global prices has encouraged producers to export product for higher returns. And while Michoacán is the only state with phytosanitary certification to export to the United States, exports to other global markets are expected to increase in the coming years.

    PRODUCTION

    The Post forecast for MY 2021/22 (July/June) avocado production is 2.33 million metric tons (MMT), eight percent lower than in the previous MY on reduced tree productivity. Grower’s state that they are expecting needed tree recovery after record productivity and production (especially in Michoacán) in the MY 2020/21 season. Additionally, insufficient rainfall and high temperatures are likely to reduce production and yields in non-Michoacan producing states. Planted and harvested areas are forecasted at 227,126 hectares (ha) and 225,910 ha respectively, with a national yield of 10.30 metric tons per hectare (MT/ha). Harvest reaches peak from October to February, with average supply from March to May, and low season from June to September.

    Mexico is the largest avocado producer in the world, accounting for 30 percent of global production. Planted area is steadily increasing year over year, at an annual growth rate of three percent, mainly due to high profitability and increased international demand. Mexico produces three varieties of avocado, with Hass accounting for 97 percent of total production and Criollo and Fuerte accounting for the remaining three percent.

    Michoacán is the top producing state in Mexico, with 75 percent of national production and 81 percent of total production value. Michoacán is also the only state with phytosanitary certification to export supplies to the United States. According to the Association of Avocado Producers and Packers and Exporters of Mexico (APEAM), there are more than 29,000 registered producers in the state (with small orchards of five to ten ha) with year-round production through four harvests. The first -and most productive- harvest of MY 2021/22 is forecasted 36 percent lower than the previous MY. The main avocado-producing municipalities are Peribán, Los Reyes, Uruapan and Tancítaro. Michoacan’s production forecast for MY 2021/22 is 1.78 MMT, nine percent lower than the previous MY, with planted area forecasted at 167,401 ha, and yields forecasted at 10.64 MT/ha. Approximately 63 percent of the states orchards are rain fed, and the remaining are equipped with drip or sprinkler irrigation systems.

    Jalisco is the second largest avocado producing state with more than 250,000 tons produced year-round from 3,100 producers (medium sized production of 10 ha or more, and 50 percent of total area among 15 to 20 growers). MY 2021/22 planted area is forecasted at 21,414 ha, two percent higher than the previous MY. Jalisco has 12,000 ha that are five years old or less among its 75 growing municipalities. Eighty-five percent of orchards are irrigated with either drip or micro-sprinklers, and planting is high density and sophisticated with technological advances like drone usage to monitor crop advancement and health.

    CONSUMPTION

    Most fresh domestic consumption is supplied from the states of Mexico, Nayarit, and Morelos. Domestic consumption for MY 2021/22 is forecast at 1.1 MMT. According to SIAP, annual per capita consumption is seven kilograms (approximately 15 pounds) per person. While a staple in Mexican cuisine, avocado consumption has not grown in recent years because of high prices driven by increased international demand. 

    Avocado has a wide range of uses as an industrialized product, including as a base for spreads, and oil production for cosmetic products. Avocado oil production from Hass and Fuerte varieties has increased in recent years. Read the full report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service HERE.